Consulting industry recovery slows in Q1 as global uncertainty grows

2026 got off to a positive start for the Swedish and Finnish consulting industry. But as the uncertain global situation has worsened, not least as a result of the war in Iran, clients have once again become more hesitant. Growth remains slightly negative and headcount has started declining again after last autumn’s trend reversal. This is shown in Cinode’s latest compilation of the listed consulting companies’ Q1 reports.

– The year started positively, but the more turmoil we have seen in the world, the more hesitant clients have become. Sales cycles are lengthening, decisions are being postponed, and several companies report that they clearly noticed a slowdown during the second half of the quarter, says Mattias Loxi, co-founder of Cinode.

Growth near zero while headcount declines

Average growth amounts to -0.4 percent and the median to -1.1 percent. This is in line with Q4, where calendar effects also play a certain role. The fastest growers are Gofore (+29.5 percent), Softronic (+17.2 percent), Combitech (+15.7 percent) and Norconsult (+14.0 percent), but a large share of the growth is acquisition-driven.

At the same time, headcount has turned downward again. Only seven of 25 companies have more employees at the end of the quarter than at the beginning – a clear deterioration compared to Q3 and Q4, when the majority grew in number of employees.

– It’s a setback that headcount is declining again after last autumn’s upturn. It signals that several companies don’t dare to ramp up the pace of recruitment until they see a clearer shift in demand, says Mattias Loxi.

Profitability holds but the industry is divided

The operating margin is 7.9 percent at the median, in line with previous quarters, but for the majority of companies margins are lower. The highest margins are reported by Exsitec (17.0 percent), Tieto (13.3 percent) and Bouvet (12.3 percent). The picture across the different sectors remains unchanged: defense, energy and infrastructure continue to hold up well, while companies with exposure to real estate, housing and parts of industry face pressured conditions. Among IT consultants, the picture is mixed.

– The direction is still positive compared to how things looked a year ago. But it’s clear that the recovery is not linear. Geopolitical risks and a hesitant client base mean that Q2 and Q3 will be decisive in determining whether we can speak of a confirmed turnaround. The most important thing in Q1 is that growth is near zero and that profitability is holding up. That’s a considerably better starting position than twelve months ago, concludes Mattias Loxi.